Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Ripple, Stellar, Litecoin, Cardano, IOTA, EOS: Price Analysis, May 18
Despite the expectations, Bitcoin prices failed to go higher after the NYC crypto conference Consensys. In fact, prices started to decline during the very conference.
CRYPTO: #Consensus2018 rally did not happen, very disappointing. What we needed was a trifecta of progress: (i) institutional custody/tools; (ii) buy-in by banks/investment managers; (iii) regulatory clarity (3 of 3 needed), but we got progress on (i) and (ii). Full text below pic.twitter.com/XcqNhgYgK7
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) 18 mai 2018
Therefore, it is better if the digital currencies consolidate the huge gains of 2017 and allow the fundamentals to catch up. The longer time spent in the range, the stronger will be the breakout.
Apple’s co-founder Steve Wozniak believes that the blockchain technology and Bitcoin will reach its full potential in about a decade. However, with many crypto enthusiasts trying to bring the technology to mainstream use, acceptance might come much earlier.
As this is a new asset class, there might be a danger of potential scams. According to a study by The Wall Street Journal, about 18.6 percent initial coin offerings (ICOs) were using “deceptive or even fraudulent tactics.” This is why investors should not allow greed to blur their judgment while doing the due diligence.
Let’s see if we find any low-risk buying opportunity today?
Bitcoin has failed to attract buyers. It has continued to slide and is now at the critical support of $7,941.68. If this level breaks down, the digital currency will plunge to $7,000. The 50-day SMA is flat and the 20-day EMA is turning down, moving towards a bearish crossover. This is a negative development.
If the support at $7,941.68 holds, the bulls will attempt a pullback, which will face resistance at the moving averages.
We can confirm that the BTC/USD pair is range bound once the price breaks out of the 20-day EMA. As it is yet to bounce off the supports, we are avoiding any buy recommendations.
Ethereum continues to outperform the other top cryptocurrencies. It is well above the 50-day SMA and just below the 20-day EMA. It is trying to hold the neckline of the bearish head and shoulders pattern. The pattern will complete on a breakdown and close (UTC) below the neckline, which has a lower target of $418.
As the 50-day SMA is still rising and the 20-day EMA is flat, we don’t expect the ETH/USD pair to sink to $418 in a hurry.
We anticipate a strong support at the 50-day SMA, which is close to the 50 percent retracement levels of the rally from $363 to $838.
The first bullish sign will be a breakout of $745 levels. Until then, every pullback attempt will be met with a strong selling pressure.
Bitcoin Cash has completed the head and shoulders pattern, which gives it a lower target objective of $650. Currently, it is close to the 50-day SMA, which might act as a support and a pullback to the neckline of the bearish H&S pattern is probable. If the bulls fail to scale above the neckline, chances of a breakdown increase.
As the BCH/USD pair had risen vertically from $777.5304 on April 18 to $1,590.7825 on April 24, there are no supports in between $800-$1,130. Below the 50-day SMA, the cryptocurrency can plunge to $800 levels where some buying can be expected.
We suggest waiting for prices to stabilize before buying. Catching a falling knife can be dangerous.
Ripple is trying to hold the May 12 lows of $0.632 but it seems weak as it is not finding buyers even at these levels. A break and fall to the critical support level of $0.56270 looks probable.
On the upside, the bulls will have to break out of the resistance zone between the 50-day SMA and $0.76 to exhibit strength.
We suggest waiting for the XRP/USD pair to show some strength before initiating any long positions.
Stellar has broken below some key support levels and is currently at the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern. A break and close (UTC) below the neckline will complete the pattern which has a lower target of $0.2.
Even if the neckline support holds, it will be a tough climb for the bulls because the XLM/USD pair will face resistance at the 50-day SMA and the 20-day EMA.
The first sign of strength will be on a break out above the May 13 highs of $0.38692920. The longer the price sustains below the moving averages, the weaker it will get. Hence, we are not suggesting any trade on it.
Litecoin has been trading below the 50-day SMA for the past three days, which shows a lack of buying even at these low levels. The bulls are trying to defend the $127 levels. If this level breaks, a slide to the $115 levels is possible.
On the upside, any bounce to the 50-day SMA or the 20-day EMA will attract selling. We remain bearish on the LTC/USD pair until it shows consistent buying.
The trend will change only on a breakout and close above the $170 levels. However, if the digital currency falls to $115 levels and holds, we shall risk a buy.
Cardano has broken below the trendline and the 50-day SMA. It has minor support at the May 12 lows of 0.00002870. If this level breaks, the next support on the downside is at 0.000025.
On the upside, the bulls will face stiff resistance at the 50-day SMA and the 20-day EMA. Once these two levels are crossed, the final hurdle will be the horizontal resistance at 0.00003445.
We shall turn positive once the ADA/BTC pair sustains above this level. Until then, it remains in a no-trade zone.
IOTA is trying to hold the horizontal support at $1.63, which is just below the 50-day SMA. If the support holds, a move back to $2.2117 is possible but the up move will face resistance at the 20-day EMA and at $2 levels.
If the support breaks, the IOTA/USD pair can slide to $1.28 levels. The 50-day SMA is rising while the 20-day EMA is declining.
Chances of a range bound action are high. We need to wait for a buy setup to emerge before suggesting any long positions on it.
EOS has been attempting to hold on to the 50-day SMA for the past two days. The 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rally is also close to the current levels. An attempt to rebound off the supports on May 17 met with selling pressure close to the 20-day EMA.
The EOS/USD pair might remain range bound between the 50-day SMA and the 20-day EMA for a few days before breaking out or breaking down from it.
The next support on the downside is at $10 levels, while the overhead resistance is at $14. We shall look for buying opportunities once the digital currency sustains above the descending channel.